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"""复刻 Java 抽回合链路，模拟每个箱子抽完一个 cycle 的实时 RTP。
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复刻的 Java 逻辑（OlympusRoundPicker / OlympusGameService / OlympusDistributionService）：
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1. 固定池 fixedSum = Σ 配比 count（按身份），N = round(fixedSum/(1-收敛比例))，
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fixedRounds = round(N×(1-收敛比例))；固定阶段 drawn < fixedRounds
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2. 固定阶段：在"remaining>0 且 expect_mul×bet ≤ payoutCap"的桶里按 remaining 加权抽；
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桶内取 40 条候选，优先取 actual_mul×bet ≤ payoutCap 的（取不到就退回候选第一条）；该桶 used+1
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3. 收敛阶段：desiredNextMul = (N×目标倍率 − 已派彩) / (N − drawn)，
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取期望最接近 desired 的 3 个桶（随机其一），桶内取 actual_mul 最接近 min(desired, capMul) 的一条
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（优先 ≤ capMul），不消耗 used
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4. 水位：payoutCap = max(0, 水位 + 本局成本) × rtp；水位 += 成本 − 派彩（白号不参与水位 → 无上限）
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5. drawn ≥ N → cycle 结束：resetCycle + refillFromConfig（有生效模板则按模板重写 count，否则 used 归零）
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用法:
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python simulate_cycle.py # 全部 30 箱 × common 身份，跑 3 个 cycle
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python simulate_cycle.py --cycles 5 --audience white
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python simulate_cycle.py --box 21
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"""
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import argparse
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import random
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from collections import defaultdict
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import olympus_db as db
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from olympus.config import ORNAMENTS, MODES, payout_expect
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# 抽回合的 payoutCap 过滤用**名义** expect_mul（对齐 Java OlympusRoundPicker，偏保守）；
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# 统计里的"名义 RTP"用 payout_expect（对齐后台「目标RTP」列的封顶修正口径）。
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_ORN_MUL = {o['id']: o['expect_mul'] for o in ORNAMENTS}
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_ORN_PAY = {o['id']: payout_expect(o['id']) for o in ORNAMENTS}
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CANDIDATE_LIMIT = 40
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def load_boxes(box_id=None):
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with db.get_conn() as conn:
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cur = conn.cursor()
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sql = 'SELECT box_id, box_type, bet, rtp, rtp_converge_ratio, total_ornaments FROM game_olympus_box'
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if box_id:
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sql += ' WHERE box_id=%s' % int(box_id)
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cur.execute(sql + ' ORDER BY box_id')
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boxes = [dict(zip(('box_id', 'box_type', 'bet', 'rtp', 'cr', 'total'), r)) for r in cur.fetchall()]
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cur.execute('SELECT box_id, ornament_id, audience, count FROM game_olympus_box_ornament')
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cfg = defaultdict(dict)
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for b, o, a, c in cur.fetchall():
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cfg[(int(b), a)][int(o)] = int(c)
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cur.execute('SELECT box_id, ornament_id, actual_mul FROM game_olympus_round')
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rounds = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(list))
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for b, o, m in cur.fetchall():
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rounds[int(b)][int(o)].append(float(m))
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# 生效模板（抽完重填的依据）
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cur.execute('''SELECT box_id, audience, items_json FROM game_olympus_box_template
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WHERE is_active=1 ORDER BY id''')
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tpl = {}
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import json
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for b, a, items in cur.fetchall():
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tpl[(int(b), a)] = {int(i['ornamentId']): int(i['count'])
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for i in json.loads(items) if int(i.get('count', 0)) > 0}
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for b in boxes:
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b['cm'] = float(MODES[b['box_type']].cost_multiplier)
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return boxes, cfg, rounds, tpl
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def _weighted(cands, weights):
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total = sum(weights)
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r = random.uniform(0, total)
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acc = 0.0
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for c, w in zip(cands, weights):
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acc += w
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if r <= acc:
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return c
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return cands[-1]
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def simulate(box, cfg, rounds, tpl, audience, cycles=3, cr_override=None):
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cm, rtp = box['cm'], float(box['rtp'])
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cr = float(cr_override if cr_override is not None else (box['cr'] or 0.15))
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fixed_sum = sum(cfg.values())
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n_total = round(fixed_sum / (1.0 - cr))
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fixed_rounds = round(n_total * (1.0 - cr))
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target_mul = rtp * cm
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capped = (audience != 'white') # 白号 payoutCap=null
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stats = []
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counts = dict(cfg)
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cumulative = {'drawn': 0, 'mul': 0.0}
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balance = 0.0 # 箱子水位：跨 cycle 持久（= Σ投注 − Σ返奖）
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for cyc in range(1, cycles + 1):
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used = defaultdict(int)
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drawn, mul_sum = 0, 0.0
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rtp_fixed = None
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while drawn < n_total:
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cap_mul = max(0.0, balance + cm) * rtp if capped else float('inf')
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remaining = {o: max(0, c - used[o]) for o, c in counts.items()}
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if drawn < fixed_rounds and sum(remaining.values()) > 0:
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elig = [o for o, r in remaining.items()
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if r > 0 and _ORN_MUL[o] <= cap_mul] or \
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[o for o, r in remaining.items() if r > 0]
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orn = _weighted(elig, [remaining[o] for o in elig])
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pool = rounds[box['box_id']].get(orn) or [0.0]
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cands = random.sample(pool, min(CANDIDATE_LIMIT, len(pool)))
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mul = next((m for m in cands if m <= cap_mul), cands[0])
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used[orn] += 1
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else:
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desired = max(0.0, (n_total * target_mul - mul_sum) / max(1, n_total - drawn))
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allowed = [o for o, c in counts.items() if _ORN_MUL[o] <= cap_mul] or list(counts)
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allowed.sort(key=lambda o: abs(_ORN_MUL[o] - desired))
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orn = random.choice(allowed[:3])
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pool = rounds[box['box_id']].get(orn) or [0.0]
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eff = min(desired, cap_mul)
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mul = sorted(pool, key=lambda m: (0 if m <= cap_mul else 1, abs(m - eff)))[0]
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drawn += 1
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mul_sum += mul
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balance += cm - mul
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cumulative['drawn'] += 1
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cumulative['mul'] += mul
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if drawn == fixed_rounds:
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rtp_fixed = mul_sum / drawn / cm
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# cycle 结束 → 按模板重填（无模板则 used 归零、count 不变）
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tpl_counts = tpl.get((box['box_id'], audience))
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refilled = '模板' if tpl_counts else 'used归零'
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if tpl_counts:
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counts = {o: c for o, c in tpl_counts.items() if c > 0}
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stats.append({
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'cycle': cyc,
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'rtp_fixed': rtp_fixed,
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'rtp_end': mul_sum / drawn / cm,
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'balance_end': balance,
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'refill': refilled,
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})
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return {
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'box_id': box['box_id'], 'box_type': box['box_type'], 'audience': audience,
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'rtp': rtp, 'cr': cr, 'n_total': n_total, 'fixed_rounds': fixed_rounds,
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'fixed_sum': fixed_sum, 'nominal': sum(c * _ORN_PAY.get(o, 0) for o, c in cfg.items()) / fixed_sum / cm,
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'cycles': stats,
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'cum_rtp': cumulative['mul'] / cumulative['drawn'] / cm,
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}
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def main():
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
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ap.add_argument('--box', type=int)
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ap.add_argument('--audience', default='common')
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ap.add_argument('--cycles', type=int, default=3)
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ap.add_argument('--cr', type=float, default=None, help='覆盖收敛比例（测敏感度用，不写库）')
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ap.add_argument('--seed', type=int, default=2026)
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args = ap.parse_args()
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random.seed(args.seed)
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boxes, cfg, rounds, tpl = load_boxes(args.box)
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print('身份=%s cycle 数=%d seed=%d 收敛比例=%s' % (
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args.audience, args.cycles, args.seed,
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('箱配置' if args.cr is None else args.cr)))
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print('箱 模式 配比sum N 固定池 名义RTP 各cycle(固定池末→整轮末) 累计RTP')
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rows = []
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for b in boxes:
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c = cfg.get((b['box_id'], args.audience), {})
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if not c:
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continue
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r = simulate(b, c, rounds, tpl, args.audience, args.cycles, args.cr)
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rows.append(r)
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per = ' '.join('%.1f→%.1f' % (s['rtp_fixed'] * 100, s['rtp_end'] * 100) for s in r['cycles'])
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flag = '✓' if abs(r['cum_rtp'] - r['rtp']) < 0.03 else '✗'
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print('%2d %-7s %5d %4d %5d %6.1f%% %-34s %6.1f%% %s' % (
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r['box_id'], r['box_type'], r['fixed_sum'], r['n_total'], r['fixed_rounds'],
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r['nominal'] * 100, per, r['cum_rtp'] * 100, flag))
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bad = [r for r in rows if abs(r['cum_rtp'] - r['rtp']) >= 0.03]
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print('\n达标(±3个百分点): %d/%d' % (len(rows) - len(bad), len(rows)))
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if bad:
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print('未达标:', [(r['box_id'], round(r['cum_rtp'] * 100, 1), round(r['rtp'] * 100, 1)) for r in bad])
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if rows:
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r = rows[0]
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print('\n样例 box%d 逐 cycle 明细（%s）:' % (r['box_id'], r['audience']))
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for s in r['cycles']:
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print(' cycle%d: 固定池结束 %.1f%% 整轮结束 %.1f%% 抽完水位=%.0f 倍底注 重填=%s' % (
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s['cycle'], s['rtp_fixed'] * 100, s['rtp_end'] * 100, s['balance_end'], s['refill']))
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if __name__ == '__main__':
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main()
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