100 lines
3.8 KiB
Python
100 lines
3.8 KiB
Python
"""麻将胡了 · 自然盘面仿真（回答"空转率/命中率到底是多少、离目标差多远"）。
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用法：
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python mahjong_simulator.py --rounds 200000 --seed 2026
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它只跑**自然落牌 + 无偏构造**的局面 —— 也就是"完全不干预"时游戏长什么样：
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自然 RTP（= 平均 actual_mul）、基础旋命中率、级联波数分布、FS 自然触发率、悬念盘占比。
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生成端要做的事（把配比凑到目标 RTP、把高倍桶构造出来）都在这些数字之上做偏置。
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import random
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import sys
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from collections import Counter
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from pathlib import Path
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent))
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from mahjong import config as C # noqa: E402
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from mahjong.engine import play_round # noqa: E402
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def main() -> None:
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
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ap.add_argument("--rounds", type=int, default=100000)
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ap.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=2026)
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ap.add_argument("--box", type=int, default=5, help="投注档 boxId，只影响金额不影响倍率")
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args = ap.parse_args()
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rng = random.Random(args.seed)
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n = args.rounds
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base_hit = 0
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empty_rounds = 0
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fs_rounds = 0
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retrigger_rounds = 0
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near_miss = 0
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capped = 0
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rotations = Counter() # 本旋波数（基础旋）
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fs_award_dist = Counter()
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bucket_dist = Counter()
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scatter_dist = Counter()
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muls = []
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total = 0.0
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for _ in range(n):
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r = play_round(rng, box_id=args.box)
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muls.append(r.actual_mul)
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total += r.actual_mul
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base = r.spins[0]
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if base.mul > 0:
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base_hit += 1
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else:
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empty_rounds += 1
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rotations[len(base.rotations)] += 1
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scatter_dist[base.scatters] += 1
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if r.has_fs:
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fs_rounds += 1
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fs_award_dist[r.free_spins] += 1
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if any(s.retrigger for s in r.spins):
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retrigger_rounds += 1
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if r.near_miss:
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near_miss += 1
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if r.capped:
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capped += 1
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bucket_dist[C.bucket_of(r.actual_mul)] += 1
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muls.sort()
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def pct(p: float) -> float:
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return muls[min(n - 1, int(n * p))]
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print(f"=== 自然仿真：{n} 局 / seed={args.seed} / 无偏构造 ===")
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print(f"自然 RTP（平均 actual_mul） : {total / n:.4f}")
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print(f"基础旋命中率（至少一波成奖） : {base_hit / n:.4%} → 空转率 {empty_rounds / n:.2%}")
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print(f"基础旋空转局（= 桶 1 占比） : {empty_rounds / n:.4%}")
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print(f"FS 自然触发率（3+ 胡） : {fs_rounds / n:.4%} （设计目标 ≈0.5%，生成端要压低）")
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print(f"其中重触发过的局 : {retrigger_rounds / n:.4%}")
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print(f"悬念盘（2 胡且第 5 轴无胡） : {near_miss / n:.4%} （设计目标 1~2%）")
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print(f"触 500x 封顶 : {capped / n:.4%}")
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print(f"actual_mul 中位 / p90 / p99 / max: {pct(0.5):.2f} / {pct(0.9):.2f} / {pct(0.99):.2f} / {muls[-1]:.2f}")
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print("\n基础旋波数分布（0 = 一波都不成）:")
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for k in sorted(rotations):
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print(f" {k} 波: {rotations[k] / n:7.3%}")
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print("\n落定盘面的胡数分布:")
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for k in sorted(scatter_dist):
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print(f" {k} 个: {scatter_dist[k] / n:7.3%}")
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print("\nFS 赠送旋数分布（触发局内）:")
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for k in sorted(fs_award_dist):
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print(f" {k} 旋: {fs_award_dist[k] / max(1, fs_rounds):7.3%}")
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print("\n落桶分布（桶: 占比 / 名义期望倍率）:")
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for b in C.BUCKETS:
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share = bucket_dist[b.id] / n
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if share:
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print(f" {b.id:2d} {b.name:<16} {share:7.4%} expect={b.expect_mul}")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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